USA vs Mexico Prediction, October 4, 2026

Final score: USA 3-0 Mexico. Our tip was Mexico or draw (X2) and it lost.

Friendlies
Friendlies

World

Oct 4th, 2026
2:00 AM
State Farm Stadium
USA
USA
W W W L W
3 : 0
Full Time
Mexico
Mexico
L D D L W

Why This Tip

33%
26%
41%
USA win Draw Mexico win

PeakyBet's model narrowly favours Mexico (41% probability — USA 33% / draw 26% / Mexico 41%). USA hold the edge on attack. Mexico look stronger on form, defence and goal model. PeakyBet tip: Mexico or draw (X2).

45% Form 55%
55% Attack 45%
25% Defence 75%
50% Head-to-head 50%
0% Goal model 100%
Tips: x X2 AWEH 2 DNB

Model-based analysis from form, attack/defence strength and head-to-head. 18+ · bet responsibly.

Recent form

USA – last 5

WWLWL

Mexico – last 5

DDLWW

Match Odds
Home
2.70
Draw
3.25
Away
2.30
Predictions
Draw
Away Win or Draw
Away Wins Either Half
2 DNB
Home Win

Match Info

Status Match Finished
Date Oct 4, 2026
Kick Off 2:00 AM
Venue State Farm Stadium
Head-to-Head & Recent Form
USA
1-2
Mexico
Mexico
2-0
USA
Mexico
0-2
USA
USA
3-0
Mexico
USA
1-1
Mexico
Mexico
0-0
USA
USA
2-0
Mexico
USA
1-0
Mexico
USA
3-2
Mexico
USA - Recent Form
W
USA
1-0
Canada
W
USA
3-0
Mexico
W
USA
4-2
Chile
W
USA
4-1
Peru
L
USA
1-4
Belgium
W
USA
2-0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
L
Türkiye
3-2
USA
W
USA
2-0
Australia
W
USA
4-1
Paraguay
L
USA
1-2
Germany
Mexico - Recent Form
L
Mexico
0-2
Chile
L
USA
3-0
Mexico
D
Mexico
1-1
Peru
D
Mexico
1-1
Colombia
L
Mexico
2-3
England
W
Mexico
2-0
Ecuador
W
Czechia
0-3
Mexico
W
Mexico
1-0
South Korea
W
Mexico
2-0
South Africa
W
Mexico
5-1
Serbia
USA
Form
W W W L W
Mexico
Form
L D D L W

League Table

About USA vs Mexico

USA face Mexico in Friendlies (World) on Sunday, October 4, 2026 (kick-off 02:00) at State Farm Stadium. On this page you will find PeakyBet's free prediction, betting tips, head-to-head record, recent form and key match facts for USA vs Mexico.

Recent form: USA have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, while Mexico have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 matches.

Based on PeakyBet's statistical model, the leading betting angle for USA vs Mexico points towards: x, X2, AWEH. Always compare with the latest odds and team news before placing a bet.

The PeakyBet model gives USA a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Mexico 41%. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.6%), followed by 1-2 (8.9%).

See all Friendlies predictions, today's correct score predictions and the strongest picks of the day.